Hopes that 2021 would recover much of the auto sales lost to the pandemic in 2020 are fading as the semiconductor shortage continues to bring widespread factory stoppages.
Last month, IHS Markit, which many automakers use as their benchmark for production forecasting, said it was trimming its production forecast by 6.2 percent, or 5 million units, to 75.8 million for 2021.
"The outlook for Q4 now reflects heightened risk as challenges to the supply chain – primarily semiconductors – remain entrenched,” IHS analyst Mark Fulthorpe wrote.
In its most recent note to investors, IHS said that 9.5 to 11 million units could be lost over the full year. In contrast to earlier statements from automakers and analysts expecting a recovery in the second half of 2021, IHS said Monday that the disruption could continue into the first half of 2022.
"H2 2022 may be the point at which we look for the stabilization of supply, with recovery efforts now st…