All vehicles on the road by 2050 will have collision-avoidance technology, resulting in a 29 percent drop in accidents and a nearly identical reduction in repair parts needed, according to research by Carlisle & Co.
Nate Chenenko, director at Carlisle, and Gabi Salomon, senior consultant at the Concord, Mass., company, discussed their research findings during the third installment of the Fixed Ops Journal Forum.
Chenenko says declines of that magnitude would be “great for society, but not so great” for selling collision parts.
Speaking of selling collision parts, research by Chenenko and Salomon also projected a 30 percent drop in parts replaced per claim by 2050 because collision-avoidance technology results in slower-speed crashes.
The Carlisle study also found prices of replacement parts that have expensive collision-avoidance technology will peak around 2024.
That will be followed by a natural decline “mainly due to innovation and other competitors,” Salomon says, but will end up in a 27 percent increase in parts costs by 2050.
Chenenko says business in the service department might have a brighter outlook because intricate calibrations need a lot of room to be done.
That’s something not always available at independent, traditional body shops.
“They have to get done by big collision centers that have a lot of space or they get done in the dealer service drive by trained technicians,” he says. “If you have a collision center at your dealership, or your service drive has the capacity to do calibrations or some of the other auxiliary services like windshield repairs and replacements, this could actually be good news.”